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2011 Atlantic hurricane season
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is tied with 1887, 1995, 2010, and the following 2012 season for the third highest number of named storms since record-keeping began in 1851. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period during each year in which most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. However, the first tropical storm of the season, Arlene, did not develop until nearly a month later. The final system, Tropical Storm Sean, dissipated over the open Atlantic on November 11. Despite unfavorable conditions, seven storms reached Category 1 strength and four of those storms reached major hurricane status (Irene, Katia, Ophelia and Rina). Katia and Ophelia reached Category 4 status and tied with strongest winds, yet Ophelia reached overall peak. (Operationally, the year featured eighteen tropical storms; in post-season analysis, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) determined that an unnamed tropical storm developed in late August, north of Bermuda.)
Due to the presence of a La Niña in the Pacific Ocean, many pre-season forecasts called for an above-average hurricane season. In Colorado State University (CSU)'s spring outlook, the organization called for 16 named storms and 9 hurricanes, of which 4 would intensify further into major hurricanes. On May 19, 2011, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their pre-season forecast, predicting 12–18 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–6 major hurricanes. Following a quick start to the season, NOAA subsequently increased their outlook to 14–19 named storms, 7–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes on August 4; CSU made no changes to the number of cyclones forecast throughout the year.
Many tropical cyclones affected land during the 2011 season; most impacts, however, did not result in a significant loss of life or property. On June 29, Arlene moved ashore near Cabo Rojo, Mexico, causing minor damage and killing 22. Roughly a month later, Tropical Storm Don made landfall in southern Texas; no fatalities nor damage was reported. Tropical Storm Harvey moved into the coastline of Central America in mid-August, and three deaths were reported as a result. During the month of September, Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Nate moved into the central United States Gulf Coast and central Mexico, respectively; the former led to 18 deaths, and the latter 5 deaths. As an extratropical cyclone, Lee caused significant damage in the form of flooding across the Northeast United States, especially in New York and Pennsylvania. The deadliest and most destructive cyclone of the season developed east of the Lesser Antilles on August 21. Hurricane Irene caused significant damage across many of the Caribbean Islands and United States Eastern Seaboard, ultimately resulting in the name's retirement. Overall, the season resulted in 114 deaths and $18.5 billion in damage.
==Seasonal forecasts==
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Hurricane and Climate Prediction Center's, Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU), Tropical Storm Risk, and the United Kingdom's Met Office. The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. As stated by NOAA and CSU, an average Atlantic hurricane season between 1981-2010 contains roughly 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index of 66-103 units.〔 NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, of below-average based on the cumulative ACE Index; however, the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is considered occasionally as well.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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